Over the past decade sectarianism has emerged as a major fault line in Middle east politics. Tensions between Shias and Sunnis have found new meaning in light of the Arab uprisings of the past year to define regional rivalries from the Levant to the Persian Gulf. The conflict in Syria, tensions in Bahrain, Lebanon and Yemen, simmering violence in Iraq and the larger regional rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia all tell of the growing importance of the sectarian divide.
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The Alwaleed Bin Talal Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding (ACMCU) hosted a delegation from the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP), the political wing of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood. The panelists included Abdul Mawgoud Dardery, an FJP member of parliament from Luxor and a member of the Foreign Relations Committee; Hussein El-Kazzaz, a businessman and advisor to the Muslim Brotherhood and FJP; Sondos Asem, senior editor of the FJP's official website and member of the Foreign Relations Committee; and Khaled Al-Qazzaz, foreign relations coordinator for the FJP. ACMCU Founding Director and University Professor John L. Esposito moderated the panel. The four-member delegation discussed a brief history of Egypt prior to the uprisings of 2011 and went on to define their role in the political process leading up to the presidential elections that are scheduled to take place this May. Examining various social, cultural, economic, and political frameworks, the members of the delegation contextualized Egypt in the post-Mubarak era, detailing their vision not only for their party, but for Egypt as well. They then fielded questions from the audience, which spurred a lively and informative discussion.
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This panel discussion, co-sponsored by the Alwaleed Bin Talal Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding (ACMCU), the Egyptian American Rule of Law Association (EARLA), and the Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS), explored the political and legal implications of Egypt’s recent parliamentary elections and forthcoming presidential elections. The discussion brought together experts who analyzed post-revolution legal reforms and election laws, specifically asked how these laws affected minority groups and parties, and offered recommendations for future reforms to help ensure free, fair, and accessible elections. Panelists also examined the results of the parliamentary elections: why did the Muslim Brotherhood and Nour party win such a large majority while the secular and liberal parties performed so poorly? Finally, panelists considered the elections’ impact on democracy in Egypt and relations with the United States, with special attention paid to U.S democracy-promotion efforts in the country.
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In the midst of the Arab Spring, Saudi Arabia alone seems to have escaped public protests over corruption, authoritarianism and the quest for more equitable sharing of benefits. This impression masks the realities of life and reform within the Kingdom. Dr. DeLong-Bas’s presentation explored some of the ways in which Saudi Arabia is working to address the challenges of the Arab Spring from a long-term perspective, offering analysis of areas of both stability and uncertainty for the future.
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Journalist and historian Paola Caridi discussed the Palestinian Islamist movement's political strategy from the participation in the 2006 elections up to the Second Arab Awakening. Caridi contributed to the founding of the press agency Lettera22 and has worked with several Italian dailies, weeklies, and reviews. Hamas: From Resistance To Government, her second book, was published in Italy in 2009 and in Palestine in March 2010.
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Ambassador Ebrahim Rasool is South Africa’s Ambassador to the United States of America. Before joining the Embassy, his most recent positions have included Member of Parliament in the National Assembly, Special Advisor to the State President of the Republic of South Africa and Premier (governor of the Western Cape Province). Ebrahim Rasool has a long history of involvement in the anti-apartheid struggle starting at High School and including leadership in the United Democratic Front (UDF) and the African National Congress (ANC).
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SFS Professor and Director of the Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding John Esposito wrote about Tunisia post-free elections for the Washington Post's On Faith blog.
Amidst reports of a 70-80 percent voter turnout of young and old, women and men, moderate Islamists and secularists, the election symbolized a restoration of their dignity and freedom and the hope for a better future. At the same time, many in Egypt and elsewhere in the Arab world and the West watched the first fruits of the Arab Spring unfold. Early reports indicate that among the 80-plus political parties and independents, Tunisia’s moderate Islamist Ennahda (Renaissance) Party, already has won 45 to 50 percent of the seats.
Ennahda’s emergence as a major political player has been enhanced by its history as the primary opposition movement and victim of the Ben Ali regime’s police state, by its strong organization, national appeal and platform, as well as the absence of strong alternative political parties. The legacy of Ben Ali’s Tunisia as that of Hosni Mubarak’s Egypt is a history and culture of authoritarianism which precluded the development of a strong multi-party system. The RCD like its Egyptian counterpart the NDP flourished in what was an essentially a one party state.
If the question in the past had been: Is Arab culture or Islam compatible with democracy? Today the key question is: “Are the old political and bureaucratic guard and “liberal” secularist elites as well Islamists ready for the transition to Arab democracies and political pluralism?”
Read the full article at the Washington Post.
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SFS Visiting Professor Shireen Hunter wrote a piece for CNN this week about a foiled assassination attempt of the Saudi ambassador in Washington that has been linked to Iran. Hunter looks into Iranian history and questions whether it's worth looking more into what Iran could have gained from such an attempt before acting upon this information.
Given this history, it is not impossible that some other interests might have been involved in the alleged plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador. The plot provides the perfect nexus between nuclear weapons and terrorism, which could justify even military strikes against Iran. This would please many Arabs, notably Saudi Arabia, which has been calling for such a strike for some time, along with other states in the region and those hawks against Iran in the United States and Europe.
Saudi Arabia is in fierce competition with Iran in the Middle East and South Asia. It would be particularly pleased by a toughening of U.S. attitudes toward Iran.
If one assumes even a modicum of rationality on the part of Iranian actors, a plot such as this is totally ruinous for Iran. On the other hand, Iranian factions can be reckless with the nation's interests in their game of power, and there is a temptation to think that one won't get caught. An Iranian plot certainly is one of the possibilities. But until all the facts are in and clarified, nothing is absolutely certain.
Read the full article Nothing's certain about Iranian plot at CNN.
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A panel of experts convened at Georgetown last night to talk about the United States’ involvement in the Middle East and the future of Muslim-Western relations after the "Arab Spring" revolutions.
Georgetown’s Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding (CMCU) and the British Council sponsored the event, called “Deconstructing the ‘Clash of Civilizations’: Towards a New Paradigm.”
The panel included CMCU founding director John Esposito and a number of others knowledgeable in the field.
Panelist Mohamed Younis, a senior analyst at the Gallup Center for Muslim Studies, drew parallels between the Arab Spring revolts and the United States’ own political history.
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As the world digests the news that U.S. forces killed Osama bin Laden in a raid on his compound in Pakistan, faculty across the School of Foreign Service have been tapped by American and international media to lend insight.
We'll update this list throughout the week of May 2.
- Paul Pillar -- director of graduate studies at the Center for Peace and Security Studies at Georgetown University and a former CIA National Intelligence officer appeared on Monday's Diane Rehm Show, broadcast from WAMU-FM in Washington and heard on NPR stations nationwide.
U.S. and allied counterterrorism efforts must continue, and in the short term perhaps even increase. The risk of revenge attacks should lead to a focus on bolstering defenses. Even more important, aggressive strikes on al Qaeda leaders in Pakistan and the global intelligence and policy campaign must not end. Al Qaeda will be in disarray, and arresting or killing remaining leaders, hindering their communications, and foiling their plots can put them on the run.
Bin Laden's death will not immobilize the core. Indeed, it may seek to launch any off-the-shelf or in-process attacks as soon as possible to prove its relevance. However, this is an organization built along personal lines, with a new leader needing to win the loyalty and support of his followers. With Bin Laden's death, his successor—most likely his No. 2, Egyptian Ayman al-Zawahiri—will need to consolidate his power. This is hard to do when he is on the run and cannot communicate freely.
We do not know whether the Taliban are actually popular among Afghans, and we won't know until U.S. forces are out of the equation in Afghanistan. Which leaves Pakistan as the main interest of U.S. policy -- Washington does in fact have strategic interest in Pakistan not going south. So there is a strong argument for facilitating negotiations for the inevitable power-sharing arrangement, and starting the drawdown of U.S. forces.
- Bruce Hoffman -- director of the Center for Peace and Security Studies and the Security Studies Program, as well as a professor -- wrote on The National Interest that Bin Laden's death shattered conventional wisdom about al-Qaeda's leader:
His presence in an urban hub, presumably with a variety of modes of contact, calls into question the supposedly hands-off, irrelevant role he had been believed to play in al-Qaeda’s strategy and perhaps even day-to-day operations. Indeed, it may have been his active participation in key al-Qaeda decision-making and operational matters that allowed us to track him to his hideout—there must have been an unusual number people coming and going, functioning essentially as couriers. It may thus be that he’s had much more of a role in al-Qaeda than we believed.
- John Esposito -- director of the Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding and professor of religion, international Affairs and Islamic studies -- told Reuters that he hopes that this will take some pressure off of Muslims who are victim to Islamophobia in the US.
- Esposito also wrote Monday for The Washington Post with colleague John Voll -- associate director of the Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding and professor of Islamic history -- questioning if the death of Bin Laden should be considered an ending or a turning point.
It is clear that the death of bin Laden does not mean an end to the global terrorist threat. Both President Obama and surviving leaders of al-Qaeda affirm that the attacks by terrorists against the whole world, including the United States, will continue. The death of the major leader of al-Qaeda does not mean an end to the organization but it does mean that trends toward a more decentralized network of militants will be strengthened.
- Esposito commented to the Los Angeles Times that there is no simple answer to how Bin Laden's death will affect Muslims in America.
I think intelligent Muslims will be aware that this is a turning point but only the beginning of a turning point.
- Hoffman commented to USA Today that though this doesn't mean the end of the movement, that a counterattack could go off half-cocked and allow US officials to learn more about surviving terror networks.
- Hoffman spoke about Al-Qaida's next leader, the possibility that it might be Ayman al-Zawahiri and how he could be even stronger than Bin Laden to NPR.
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